Benjamin Franklin famously said that nothing is certain but death and taxes. David Maples adds a third certainty: change. And businesses that fail to anticipate change do not survive to complain about taxes.
The Buggy Whip Warning
The buggy whip industry did not fail because of bad products or poor marketing. It failed because its leaders could not—or would not—recognize that the internal combustion engine made their entire business model obsolete.
On The Buck Stops Here podcast, Maples uses this historical example to illustrate a timeless truth: companies that miss obvious trend signals eventually collapse.
The question is not whether change will come. The question is whether you will see it coming.
You Cannot Overdrive Your Headlights
Overdriving your headlights means traveling faster than your visibility allows—you cannot stop in time when something appears in your path.
Many businesses operate this way: ignoring visible warning signs, dismissing emerging trends, assuming the future will resemble the past.
This is not brave optimism. It is willful blindness.
A Practical Framework for Anticipating Change
Maples recommends a simple three-step process:
Step 1: Identify Changes
List the shifts affecting your specific industry. Not abstract trends—concrete changes you are already seeing or that others in your space are discussing.
Step 2: Measure Impact
For each change, rate two factors on a 1-5 scale:
- Probability: How likely is this to affect you?
- Impact: How significant would the effect be?
Multiply the scores. A change with probability 4 and impact 5 scores 20—that is a priority issue.
Step 3: Develop Plans
Create actionable strategies addressing your highest-scoring risks. Not vague intentions—specific actions with timelines and accountability.
Trends That Demand Attention
Remote Work
Distributed workforces have permanently altered recruitment, retention, and office real estate. Every company must decide: full remote, full in-office, or hybrid. Waiting to decide is itself a decision—and probably the wrong one.
Consumer Behavior
Habits formed during disruption often persist afterward. Grocery delivery, food delivery platforms, virtual meetings—these are not temporary accommodations. They are new expectations.
Commercial Real Estate
The shift toward remote work threatens office occupancy rates and property valuations. Industries built on office workers commuting daily face existential questions.
The Responsibility You Cannot Avoid
Business owners cannot claim uncertainty as an excuse for inaction. While predicting specifics is difficult, recognizing trends is essential—and actionable.
You may not know exactly what will happen. But you can identify what is likely, assess how it might affect you, and prepare accordingly.
The companies that thrive through change are not those that predict perfectly. They are those that watch carefully, plan proactively, and move before competitors do.
This article is based on Episode 2 of The Buck Stops Here podcast: “Predicting the Road Ahead.”